The collapsed transition probability

where

is the source state and

the destination state
can be written as a product of factors:
The meaning of these factors is as follows.
First, recall the following definitions from the original paper (Holmes, 2003):
- Tree nodes are numbered 1,2,3...N and are sorted in preorder
- The "root branch" from node 1 to node 2 must exist, and must be the only branch from node 1
-
is the set of all descendants of node
- Branches are numbered by the node they lead to, i.e. 2,3...N
-
is the "branch length" leading to node
, so e.g.
is the root branch length
- A "branch transducer" is associated with every branch
-
is the transition probability from
to
for a branch transducer with branch length
-
is the state space of the branch transducer (and is assumed to be independent of branch length)
-
is the state type of
for
, and takes values in
Note that "branch length" can be a continuous real variable, but it doesn't have to be; in fact it can be any label associated with the branch.
Also recall, for any Collapsed EHMM state

, that:
-
is the state of the transducer on the branch leading to node
-
is the state type of
-
is the emitter node of
, i.e. the highest-numbered Insert node:
We introduce some new definitions:
-
is the first node that is "eclipsed" by the emitter in state
, or N+1 if none are:
is the effective transition probability via intermediate wait states:
-
is a shorthand for the destination emitter.
The algorithm for deciding whether a transition is allowed is as follows.
The composite transducer state is first partitioned into subtrees as in the following table.
For every node

within each subtree, the appropriate condition must be satisfied if the transition is to be allowed:
| Subtree | Condition | Term in |
| | |
|  | |
|  | |
|  | |
| | |
A description of factors

follows.
Factor

prevents transducers from changing state if they are prior to the destination emitter, or eclipsed by both source and destination emitters:
Factor

corresponds to the change of state of the transducer at the destination emitter:
Factor

collects contributions from descendants of the destination emitter:
where
These transitions can use intermediate Wait states, which is why we use

rather than

.
Factor

collects contributions from newly eclipsed transducers:
where